Method / 01

Build from first principles.

A yield case should explain what capital is doing, who funds the return, how long the conditions must hold, what gets deducted, and how principal can be impaired. If one part is missing, the headline rate is not enough.

01

Map the capital

Define the principal, denomination, liquidity requirement, time horizon, and acceptable access constraints. Capital needed for near-term obligations should not be modeled as though it can remain undisturbed.

Minimum record

Amount, currency, earliest use date, withdrawal constraints, and the consequence of delayed access.

P = principal available
T = usable duration
02

Name the rate

Trace the return to an economic source: public debt interest, borrower demand, credit spread, transaction fees, or token emissions. Separate durable cash flow from incentives that depend on continued issuance or subsidy.

Mechanism test

Who pays? Why do they pay? In what unit? What causes the rate to reset, decline, or disappear?

gross return = P × r × T
03

Price the risk

List the conditions required for principal and income to arrive as expected. Include credit, counterparty, duration, liquidity, operational, custody, and—where relevant—smart-contract risk. A risk that cannot be quantified still belongs in the decision.

Failure test

Write the loss path in one sentence. If the sentence cannot be written plainly, the mechanism is not yet understood.

expected ≠ guaranteed
uncertain ≠ zero
04

Subtract the drag

Deduct management charges, transaction costs, spreads, taxes where applicable, idle periods, conversion costs, and inflation. Compare results in the unit that matters to the capital owner—not merely the unit in which rewards are quoted.

Net test

Use assumptions with dates and sources. Run a lower-rate, higher-cost, and early-exit case before accepting the base case.

net = gross − fees − friction
real ≈ net − inflation

The one-page yield record.

Each construction should fit on one page before it enters a portfolio discussion. This is a documentation frame, not a recommendation or forecast.

YIELDMAKE / CONSTRUCTION RECORDILLUSTRATIVE FIELDS — NO LIVE DATA
01Capital mandatePrincipal, denomination, horizon, liquidity need, and loss tolerance.
02Rate mechanismPayer, reason for payment, reset terms, and payment unit.
03Required conditionsWhat must remain solvent, liquid, operational, and enforceable.
04Known dragFees, spreads, taxes, conversion, idle time, and inflation assumption.
05Failure modesHow income can fall, access can narrow, or principal can be impaired.
=Explainable yield caseA dated set of assumptions that can be challenged and revised.
Failure modes

Ask what must stay true.

  • RateThe paying activity may weaken, incentives may end, or variable rates may reset below the assumption.
  • DurationCapital may be needed before maturity, while exiting early may introduce price loss or penalties.
  • CounterpartyAn issuer, borrower, custodian, or intermediary may fail to perform as promised.
  • ImplementationOperational errors, contract defects, governance changes, or access failures may interrupt repayment.
  • Purchasing powerA positive nominal return may still produce a negative real result after inflation and costs.

Apply the method by instrument class.

See where different categories derive yield and what commonly breaks the case.

Review instruments